Goody's Cool Orange 500

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YTD Totals

Sprint Cup Match-Ups: 20-12 +10.10 units
Nationwide Match-Ups: 12-11 +05.15 units
Outrights/Propositions:02-06 +02.40 units

Total: +17.65 units

More grass roots short-track racing at Martinsville, gotta love it. Hope the weather will hold off on Sunday.

Match-Ups

2.00 units Jeff Gordon (-120) over Kyle Busch (@bodog)
Really think the Hendrick teams get back on track this week. The 24 and 48 have owned Martinsville winning 5 of the last six races and the worst finish for either driver since '05 was an 8th by Johnson. In that same time span Gordon has not placed out of the Top 5. Got to be the favorite today.
Busch has good history here but I just think his aggresion may get the best of him somewhere along the way.

2.00 units Juan Pablo Montoya (-125)over Reed Sorenson (@thegreek)
Like this one a lot. JPM last year at Martinsville finished 16th in the spring and 8th in the fall. This year he has improved(finish position) every race, 32nd, 20th, 19th, 16th and 15th. Would not be shocked to see him in the Top 10 again this weekend. His best runs(outside of road-courses) have been on flat tracks.

1.00 unit Aric Almirola (+145) over David Ragan (@betus)
Very good odds on a match-up that is close to even. Two very much improved young drivers with a slight edge in Cup experience to Ragan.
But I like what I see and hear from Almirola, had a very good run at Bristol and he has backed that up with a strong qualifying effort and was pretty good in practice. Can't pass it up at this price.

1.00 unit David Reutimann (-135) over Michael Waltrip (@thegreek)
Different colors for Reutimann as he takes over the UPS ride from Jarrett, but aside from new colors, number and sponsor everything is the same. Beak should continue to carry the banner for MWR as he has beaten his boss head-to-head four out of five times this year. Hope he makes it five out of six.

May add a prop or two on Sunday.
 

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added plays:

Match-Ups

0.50 unit Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+150) over Jimmie Johnson (@bookmaker)
Strictly a value play. Think both drivers are potential Top 5's, think a little more of Johnson's chances to win but only by a small margin. Worth a shot at this price.

0.50 unit Greg Biffle (+150) over Carl Edwards (@thegreek)
Again a value play based on price and Biffle's consistent performance to start the year(4th,4th,3rd,15th and 10th). On the side of track history, not a very good place for either driver.

Props(both at sportbook.com)

1.00 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (-115) to finish better than 17.5
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (-115) to finish better than 17.5
I stated earlier my thoughts on Montoya. As for Kenseth he has struggled so far this weekend(qualified 28th and was even worse in both Saturday practices) but I have faith a team of this caliber can right the ship as the day goes on, at least to the point of getting in the Top 15.

Good Luck everyone.
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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you have more faith in kenseth than he has...

"it's probably my weakest place and probably the place I struggle the most at, so I can't really honestly say I really ever look forward to coming here. I usually look forward to driving home Sunday afterwards and having it out of the way."
 

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Kenseth has always been good at poor-mouthing. No, Martinsville is not his favorite place and he seems to be a little negative evertime he comes here but if you look back here is what he has done at Martinsville:

2007: started 24th finished 5th
2007: started 33rd finished 10th
2006: started 20th finished 11th
2006: started 16th finished 24th
2005: started 25th finished 12th
2005: started 18th finished 11th

All I want out of him is 17th or better, he has done that 5 of the last 6 races here and if you look his starting position has not been very good in most of those.
 

Scottcarter was caught making out with Caitlin Jen
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I'm kinda liking Carl Edwards to have a decent showing today myself.

I absolutely love your Amorola over Regan pick today. I already got on that one myself. GL
 

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Hope Almirola comes through for us Mike. You never really know what you're going to get when you have someone with that little experience but this guy has impressed going back a couple of years in the Busch/Nationwide series.

Edwards is a mystery to me today, really don't have a feel for him either way. He's never had a Top 10 at Martinsville did not qualify well but was good in both practice sessions Saturday. No doubt a Top 15 car with potential to be a lot better.

Good luck today.
 

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Jr. should be able to run well today, took him at +105 over Kyle earlier, also grabbed jeff and jimmie to both be Top 3.
 

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lifeexpired, like all those plays. the jr/kyle match-up was on my original list might regret not playing it.

good luck today.
 

Johnboy
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Mar 22, 2006
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+12.5 units

TO WIN

Hamlin 7-1 2 units

taking 3 great drivers at high odds...maybe strategy will pay off!

Kenseth 33-1 .5 units
Burton 45-1 .5 units
Ku Busch 36-1 .5 units


Top 3 finish
Kenseth 9-1 1 unit

Matchup
Hamlin over Stewart -110 2 unit


:103631605:103631605:103631605
 

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SUNDAY

Match-Ups: 2- 4 +0.65 unit
Propositions: 1- 1 - 0.15 unit

Total: +0.50 unit

Pretty much a wash for today. At least I hit the bigger plays, thats 7 in a row(anything over a unit). Those plays are what is keeping me up.
 

Johnboy
Joined
Mar 22, 2006
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TO WIN

Hamlin 7-1 2 units

taking 3 great drivers at high odds...maybe strategy will pay off!

Kenseth 33-1 .5 units
Burton 45-1 .5 units
Ku Busch 36-1 .5 units


Top 3 finish
Kenseth 9-1 1 unit

Matchup
Hamlin over Stewart -110 2 unit


:103631605:103631605:103631605


:dancefool:dancefool
Good day in Nascar! Hamlin gets daddy a new pair of shoes.

+13.5 unit day!


Brings year to date total to +26 units!

Can't wait til Texas!

%^_​
 

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Hey Nascarphenom Nice win

Whats your plan on the paymrnt for the nascar 2008 pool

Nascarfan48
:dancefool:dancefool
Good day in Nascar! Hamlin gets daddy a new pair of shoes.

+13.5 unit day!


Brings year to date total to +26 units!

Can't wait til Texas!


%^_​
 

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